STASTICS EXERCISES

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Central English temperature record exercise 2014
Introduction
Reliable temperature data for central England exist, going back to the mind 17th century.
The datafile temps2014.xlsx (from the Hadley Centre website) contains the seasonal data.
Question 1
Produce a plot of the annual average temperature against calendar year, adjusting the axes suitably, labelling them, and adding a regression line and a moving average line.
Question 2
Test the r2 for statistical significance. Interpret your findings (not more than 200 words).
The table below gives critical values for r: DF is degrees of freedom (N-2)

P-value

DF
0.05
0.02
0.01
0.001
0.0001

10
0.4973
0.5980
0.6581
0.7950
0.8742

50
0.2306
0.2858
0.3218
0.4188
0.4937

100
0.1638
0.2037
0.2301
0.3025
0.3602

200
0.1161
0.1446
0.1636
0.2162
0.2588

353
0.0874
0.1091
0.1234
0.1635
0.1962

354
0.0873
0.1089
0.1233
0.1633
0.1959

355
0.0872
0.1088
0.1231
0.1630
0.1956

356
0.0871
0.1086
0.1229
0.1628
0.1953

500
0.0735
0.0917
0.1038
0.1376
0.1653

Question 3
Do a t-test comparing the last 20 years with a 20-year period before the industrial revolution (which began around 1750). Produce a bar chart with standard error bars and with a caption including your statistical findings.
Question 4
Investigate the theory that the impact of global warming in temperate latitudes has mainly been on winter temperatures. Your write up should have not more than 2 charts (with captions) and not more than 200 words of text (not including the captions).

Each question carries 25% of the total marks.

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